The slow drift of Apple and Google?

After a couple years of threatened and attempted thermo-nuclear war, it really does look like Apple and Google are making their peace and drifting in different direction.

Perhaps they realised this was not a situation of ‘neither can live while the other survives’, and that instead these were two distinct companies, with equally remarkable, but very different, skill sets – and that the natural conclusion of this was divergence over time.

As Benedict Evans keeps arguing, Apple’s moving down the tech stack (A7 processor, TouchID, iBeacons and Bluetooth LE meshes..) and Google is moving up it (Google Play services, cloud-based AI & machine learning services…). It’s not out of spite but out of natural advantage. Apple’s thing is integrating hardware and software – it allows them to do all sorts of things Google can’t; Google’s thing is data and cloud – the same principle applies.

This year’s WWDC is only a confirmation of these trends – opening TouchID to public API but sandboxing it the whole way down; HomeKit and HealthKit; writing Metal and Swift… all things only Apple can do well.

 

Finally a thought from Benedict:

 

One effect of this is that it might get harder to make essentially the same app on both platforms. If a core, valuable thing you can do on one platform has no analogue at all on the other, what do you do? Ignore the stuff that isn’t on both, and get a lowest common denominator product? Or dive into those tools, but end up having quite different experiences on iOS and Android? Things like Metal and Swift only accelerate this issue.

http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2014/6/4/digesting-wwdc-cloudy

The paradox of Android

The paradox of Android is that Google designed an open-source common operating system that with the intention of commoditising the hardware players and drive prices down.

Instead it gave rise to a single, dominant player.

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On paper, Samsung represents fully half the Android market, but if you strip out ultra-low-end Chinese contenders and look at the mid-range market where the bulk of the value lies they represent far, far more. It is outspending Apple on brand in the US and is ploughing record amounts of cash into innovation across the board, from memory chips to flexible LCDs.

Interestingly, Microsoft make more off Android than Google does (because they own key patents).

Our new design language

How we got to flat design

Up till about 2007 the design imperative was to convey interactivity and familiarity. That meant buttons, bubbles, huge drop shadows and shiny stuff.

Round 2007 Apple really started pushing skeumorphism, and the iPhone brought that to the masses. The iPhone was a totally new form factor -it needed to be totally intuitive, to show clearly what could be tapped and what couldn’t, and what stuff did. The apogee of skeumorphism was around 2010.

The flat design pioneers… Microsoft (!) and Google

By 2010, there was mass adoption of mobile and web design. People were comfortable with these interfaces, used to interactivity and had internalised this new set of UX and interface expectations.

At the same time the iPhone competitors were desperate to break out of an Apple-dominated design language.

Flat design was their answer – Google had a massive design push round this time, it started experimenting with flatter interfaces and card based organisation (which just reached maturity with Google Now). Meanwhile Microsoft came out with the Metro UI, which was like a totally flat mosaic-type interface. Both of these were a reaction to loud, busy and in-your-face skeumorphism, it took a while for this new language to mature.

Apple late to the game

With the announcement of ios7, Apple finally makes flat design mainstream. Three years late to the game, they are going to have to try to recapture the initiative. Parallax seems to be the only USP they’ve come up with so far.

Nevertheless, the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction.

‘New’ flat design principles:

1) Simplicity, minimalism and clean design
2) Clean and elegant typography and lines (made possible by high-res displays)
3) Increased use of layers, especially to indicate context
4) Gesture based interfaces
5) Flat colours, and pastels

What survives?

Some principles will hopefully survive, particularly the ones that don’t clash violently with flat design principles. For example depth and shadows will continue to be used, though they will be much more subtle. More importantly, some level of affordance needs to remain as a permanent feature. Without it, interaction expectations would need to be even more strictly conformed to for apps to remain intuitive – necessarily limiting experimentation and evolution. Totally flat design (ie metro interface) is as bad as skeumorphic overkill. There’s a happy medium to be found.

Overall, flat design is going to be a UX challenge in that designers will need to make flat interfaces feel alive and responsive with only the most subtle and ambiguous of visual clues (ie colour, placement, and fluidly evolving design expectations). It wont be easy. We need to strike the right balance between keeping the best of skeumorphism (some ornamentalism, friendly and approachable design), rejecting the worst (warping a digital interface into it’s analogue counterpart); introducing the best of minimalism (stripped down, fast-loading and simplified design) and keeping out the worst (cold, emotionless, intimidating screens).

What’s next?

Today we have mobiles, phablet, tablets and desktops, but the major hardware companies are all working on next generation devices – watches, glasses, bracelets and other wearables, household devices like Nest, touchless interfaces like Leap Motion and voice interfaces like Siri… It is these new interface formats that are going to push the user interface envelope, and new standards and expectations will necessarily emerge, and best practices will merge with other interface formats.

Over time, complexity always seems to efface itself. The same will be true of the user interface. Navigation is becoming invisible, button are blending into the background, and gestures and colour are taking their place. Look for more of this, particularly gestures.

Right now flat design seems new and exciting, but it wont be modern forever. Increasing user familiarity with digital interfaces combined with the emergence of new interface formats will drive the next iteration of design language.

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Changing business paradigms

It is old news that the internet is shifting the ground under our feet, but here are a few thoughts about what the implications are, ultimately, for startups.

1) As reputation capital and social network sites get better…

…the world is becoming smaller. Information is better accessed, faster and generally for free. Looking to hire a team? post it on Facebook, stalk people in Linkedin and check their authority on PeerIndex.

2) Ever expanding access to credit and investment.
Just think of Kickstarter, crowd investment, grant access, government funded incubators, startup accelerators (like Seedcamp, 500startups, Y Combinator, Techstars, StartupSauna…), social enterprise funds like Acumen, Angel funding and even online instant loans.

But even as this gets better, startups need less and less because…

3) Don’t forget the deflationary power of the internet!

Startups have access to incredibly mature open source technology (think Google suite), incredibly large distribution channels (think fb / twitter and App stores) and incredibly scalable infrastructure (think Amazon web services). And they have access to these at nominal cost.

When i started Stitch Alpaca i registered at the Companies House online in ten minutes for £20, interviewed designers face to face over Skype, collaborated on press releases using Dropbox and Goggle Docs, sent countless emails and attachements, created the graphics on GIMP, made a Facebook page for my company and spread it to friends, who spread it to theirs, until one of those friends worked at a national broadsheet and contacted me for an interview, which was read by thousands of people – for free. I built a website using freeware, hosted it for £4 a year with 2gb of server space, and used $10/month SaaS to host my web store, take care of inventory and payment processing. If i wanted i could even use ifttt.com to automatically email my suppliers for new stock when it was running low.

Total cost of running the company: about £10 a month.

So what does this all mean?

You have declining launch costs, defined ecosystems emerging all over the world facilitating inter-personal spread of knowledge about an army of the best services, mostly online and mostly free, which are there to help you gain exposure, build a team, get money, build a product, iterate based on real-time feedback and validate business models as fast as possible.Web communication allows you to work with anyone in the world, or anywhere you like. At the same time the internet will continue to spread and reach increasing amounts of people, growing your market, user base and talent pool all at once at zero effort or cost to you.

There has been no better time to be a tech entrepreneur, except that there’s never been so much competition, though that’s only bad news for you – if you want to succeed you’d better be damn good. Especially because more competition means more companies, which means more teams – which means a more dilute talent pool. On this subject Google’s efforts have been really interesting: they’ve been buying up promising startups for their brilliant teams rather for the product they were building. The commoditisation of skilled teams is something i think we will hear about much more in the future – increasingly, it’s where the value’s at.

Ultimately the result of all this is democratisation.  Which in turn implies the marginalisation of the traditional background. It won’t matter how big your offline rolodex is, what university you went to, where you live, or whether your family can lend you £100k. Sure it’ll help, but already it doesn’t matter like it used to.

What will matter is you ability to do one of two things: make something useful, or sell it.

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